Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 3, 2021
Updated: Sat Apr 3 08:46:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
107,824
6,752,954
Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Fort Smith, AR...Fayetteville, AR...
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Apr 06, 2021 - Wed, Apr 07, 2021
D7
Fri, Apr 09, 2021 - Sat, Apr 10, 2021
D5
Wed, Apr 07, 2021 - Thu, Apr 08, 2021
D8
Sat, Apr 10, 2021 - Sun, Apr 11, 2021
D6
Thu, Apr 08, 2021 - Fri, Apr 09, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030844
SPC AC 030844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 03 2021
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance is converging towards a scenario of a
western U.S. trough evolving into a closed mid-level low over the
central U.S. during the early half of the extended period. Severe
potential will likely focus on Tuesday across KS and possibly OK
near a dryline with storms developing eastward overnight.
Uncertainty remains regarding moisture quality and capping concerns
but hail/wind are the main threats with this activity. Higher
confidence exists for organized severe storms on Wednesday from the
Ozarks eastward to the MS Valley as high momentum flow overspreads a
potential moderately unstable boundary layer centered on Arkansas.
All hazards are possible. A separate bi-modal area of concern could
develop farther north but there is low confidence in this scenario.
Uncertainty increases by Thursday owing in part to model spread and
potential consequential effects of appreciable convective
overturning for areas farther east/southeast on Thursday (day 6).
Model variability increases during the latter part of the extended
period.
..Smith.. 04/03/2021
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