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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 4, 2021
Updated: Sun Apr 4 08:38:02 UTC 2021
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 4, 2021
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 4, 2021
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 95,001 6,486,251 Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...Fort Smith, AR...
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 4, 2021
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 4, 2021
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 4, 2021
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 4, 2021
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Wed, Apr 07, 2021 - Thu, Apr 08, 2021 D7Sat, Apr 10, 2021 - Sun, Apr 11, 2021
D5Thu, Apr 08, 2021 - Fri, Apr 09, 2021 D8Sun, Apr 11, 2021 - Mon, Apr 12, 2021
D6Fri, Apr 09, 2021 - Sat, Apr 10, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 040836
   SPC AC 040836

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 AM CDT Sun Apr 04 2021

   Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models continue to show a mid-level low moving slowly
   over the Midwest through the end of the work week.  Confidence in
   severe thunderstorm potential is currently greatest on Wednesday
   across parts of the lower MS Valley.  Substantial uncertainty exists
   regarding the impact of thunderstorms and an effective boundary for
   subsequent severe potential on Thursday.  The area of potential
   severe would possibly reside across the lower MS Valley into parts
   of the TN Valley but confidence is low regarding details for this
   possible scenario.  Models vary considerably by next weekend with
   low confidence in the overall forecast upper-air pattern.

   ..Smith.. 04/04/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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