Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left     navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 5, 2021
Updated: Mon Apr 5 08:24:03 UTC 2021
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 5, 2021
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 5, 2021
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 5, 2021
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 5, 2021
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 5, 2021
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 5, 2021
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Apr 08, 2021 - Fri, Apr 09, 2021 D7Sun, Apr 11, 2021 - Mon, Apr 12, 2021
D5Fri, Apr 09, 2021 - Sat, Apr 10, 2021 D8Mon, Apr 12, 2021 - Tue, Apr 13, 2021
D6Sat, Apr 10, 2021 - Sun, Apr 11, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 050822
   SPC AC 050822

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 AM CDT Mon Apr 05 2021

   Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models agree in showing a mid-level low over the
   Midwest on Thursday with this feature possibly becoming absorbed
   within a larger-scale evolving trough over the north-central Great
   Plains by Friday.  Severe thunderstorm activity/potential will
   likely focus over parts of the South during the early half of the
   extended period.  Boundary placement and potential upstream
   lower-latitude disturbances traversing across the south-central U.S.
   into the Southeast are predictability concerns at this time.  Model
   spread increases towards the end of the period as the upper-air
   pattern becomes less clear.

   ..Smith.. 04/05/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us
NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 01, 1970		 Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary 		Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities