Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 6, 2021
Updated: Tue Apr 6 08:04:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Apr 09, 2021 - Sat, Apr 10, 2021
D7
Mon, Apr 12, 2021 - Tue, Apr 13, 2021
D5
Sat, Apr 10, 2021 - Sun, Apr 11, 2021
D8
Tue, Apr 13, 2021 - Wed, Apr 14, 2021
D6
Sun, Apr 11, 2021 - Mon, Apr 12, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060801
SPC AC 060801
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CDT Tue Apr 06 2021
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models show multiple disturbances moving eastward
across the MS Valley during the early part of the extended period.
There is substantial uncertainty regarding the evolution of a
forecast surface low east of the MS River during this timeframe. It
appears severe-weather potential will probably focus across parts of
the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. During the latter part of
the extended period, a mid-level disturbance will move from the
north-central Rockies east into the Great Lakes/MS Valley. The
current trend is for a moist/unstable airmass to be relegated to the
Gulf Coast and displaced from the system early next week.
Therefore, a potential-too-low highlight may be more appropriate
despite increasing model variability.
..Smith.. 04/06/2021
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