(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070836
SPC AC 070836
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The potential for organized severe thunderstorms will focus during
the early part of the extended period. Medium-range models show a
mid-level trough moving across the MS Valley Saturday and eastward
into the central/southern Appalachians on Sunday. A warm sector
will likely encompass parts of the northeast Gulf Coast states on
Saturday with an accompanying severe risk. Uncertainty remains how
far north and northeast appreciable instability can develop
Saturday. By Sunday, a severe threat could include parts of the
Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states depending on the timing/evolution of
the mid-level trough. The potential for severe will likely be low
during the early half of next week despite large model variability
by this timeframe.
..Smith.. 04/07/2021
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