Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 8, 2021
Updated: Thu Apr 8 08:37:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Apr 11, 2021 - Mon, Apr 12, 2021
D7
Wed, Apr 14, 2021 - Thu, Apr 15, 2021
D5
Mon, Apr 12, 2021 - Tue, Apr 13, 2021
D8
Thu, Apr 15, 2021 - Fri, Apr 16, 2021
D6
Tue, Apr 13, 2021 - Wed, Apr 14, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080834
SPC AC 080834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models indicate a mid-level low over the southern Great
Lakes will weaken on Sunday (day 4) as an attendant trough moves
across the Mid-Atlantic states and Carolinas. If appreciable
instability can develop over parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, some
risk for strong thunderstorms could develop. This scenario is
characterized by relatively high uncertainty at this time. The
potential for severe thunderstorms will likely be lowest on Monday
as high pressure over the northern Gulf Coast states limits
destabilization. Models indicate southwesterly mid-level flow will
become established across the southern High Plains downstream of a
potential amplifying trough over the western U.S. Predictability is
too low during the latter half of the extended period.
..Smith.. 04/08/2021
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