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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 15, 2021
Updated: Thu Apr 15 08:46:02 UTC 2021
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 15, 2021
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 15, 2021
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 15, 2021
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 15, 2021
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 15, 2021
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 15, 2021
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Apr 18, 2021 - Mon, Apr 19, 2021 D7Wed, Apr 21, 2021 - Thu, Apr 22, 2021
D5Mon, Apr 19, 2021 - Tue, Apr 20, 2021 D8Thu, Apr 22, 2021 - Fri, Apr 23, 2021
D6Tue, Apr 20, 2021 - Wed, Apr 21, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 150844
   SPC AC 150844

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

   Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Severe potential will remain low during the Day 4-8 period. Upper
   troughing in the mean will persist as several shortwave troughs
   migrate through larger-scale flow across the CONUS. Surface high
   pressure will persist east of the Rockies, and periodic cold frontal
   intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of
   boundary-layer moisture. Some medium-to-long-range guidance is
   hinting toward a potential pattern change around Day 8, or just
   after, with an upper ridge building over the western U.S., while a
   shortwave impulse ejects eastward across the southern Rockies. This
   could allow for Gulf return flow over parts of the southern Plains
   next Thursday. However, quite a bit of uncertainty exists with large
   spread among various forecast guidance, and confidence in severe
   potential on Day 8 remains low.

   ..Leitman.. 04/15/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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