Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 15, 2021
Updated: Thu Apr 15 08:46:02 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Apr 18, 2021 - Mon, Apr 19, 2021
D7
Wed, Apr 21, 2021 - Thu, Apr 22, 2021
D5
Mon, Apr 19, 2021 - Tue, Apr 20, 2021
D8
Thu, Apr 22, 2021 - Fri, Apr 23, 2021
D6
Tue, Apr 20, 2021 - Wed, Apr 21, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 150844
SPC AC 150844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential will remain low during the Day 4-8 period. Upper
troughing in the mean will persist as several shortwave troughs
migrate through larger-scale flow across the CONUS. Surface high
pressure will persist east of the Rockies, and periodic cold frontal
intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of
boundary-layer moisture. Some medium-to-long-range guidance is
hinting toward a potential pattern change around Day 8, or just
after, with an upper ridge building over the western U.S., while a
shortwave impulse ejects eastward across the southern Rockies. This
could allow for Gulf return flow over parts of the southern Plains
next Thursday. However, quite a bit of uncertainty exists with large
spread among various forecast guidance, and confidence in severe
potential on Day 8 remains low.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2021
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