Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 16, 2021
Updated: Fri Apr 16 08:32:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Apr 19, 2021 - Tue, Apr 20, 2021
D7
Thu, Apr 22, 2021 - Fri, Apr 23, 2021
D5
Tue, Apr 20, 2021 - Wed, Apr 21, 2021
D8
Fri, Apr 23, 2021 - Sat, Apr 24, 2021
D6
Wed, Apr 21, 2021 - Thu, Apr 22, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160830
SPC AC 160830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Rich low-level moisture will likely remain limited to parts of the
FL Peninsula along/south of a front from Day 4/Monday through at
least the middle of next week. Appreciable thunderstorm chances
should also remain confined to this region. But, organized severe
potential appears low through Day 6/Wednesday, as low-level
convergence along the front should remain weak and any storms that
form may remain generally elevated to the north of the front. By
late next week, an upper trough may eject from the western CONUS
across the southern Plains. Increasing low-level moisture may be
realized over part of the southern Plains by late Day 7/Thursday
into Day 8/Friday. It remains unclear how amplified the upper trough
will be, the speed of its eastward progress, and the quality of
low-level moisture return. Although predictability remains low at
this extended time frame, some increase in severe potential across
the south-central CONUS may be realized around Day 8/Friday.
..Gleason.. 04/16/2021
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