Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 23, 2021
Updated: Fri Apr 23 08:40:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
155,134
12,146,051
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Apr 26, 2021 - Tue, Apr 27, 2021
D7
Thu, Apr 29, 2021 - Fri, Apr 30, 2021
D5
Tue, Apr 27, 2021 - Wed, Apr 28, 2021
D8
Fri, Apr 30, 2021 - Sat, May 01, 2021
D6
Wed, Apr 28, 2021 - Thu, Apr 29, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230838
SPC AC 230838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Robust moisture return is still anticipated early next week across
the southern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley as a deep upper trough
progresses across the Southwest and into the southern/central Plains
and Lower/Mid MS Valley. Speed of this eastward progression varies
by model, with the GFS representing the most progressive solution,
the Canadian the least progressive, and the ECMWF between these two.
Even with these differences, confidence remains high that severe
thunderstorms will impact the central and southern Plains on
D5/Tuesday. A lead shortwave trough is expected to eject out of the
southern High Plains into the central Plains, aiding in cyclogenesis
and sharpening of a dryline from far southwest KS
south-southwestward through southwest TX. Vertically veering wind
profiles, steep mid-level lapse rates, and warm/moist surface
conditions continue to suggest the potential for supercells capable
of all severe hazards.
Additional severe threat may materialize on D6/Wednesday, but it
will depend on both the extent/location of thunderstorm activity on
D5/Tuesday as well as how progressive the upper trough is.
Currently, portions of east/southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley
appear most favorable for a severe risk. However, uncertainty is too
high to outlook any areas with this forecast.
Some severe risk also appears possible across the Southeast on
D7/Thursday, but the previously mentioned uncertainties continue to
limit predictability.
..Mosier.. 04/23/2021
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