Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 26, 2021
Updated: Mon Apr 26 09:00:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Apr 29, 2021 - Fri, Apr 30, 2021
D7
Sun, May 02, 2021 - Mon, May 03, 2021
D5
Fri, Apr 30, 2021 - Sat, May 01, 2021
D8
Mon, May 03, 2021 - Tue, May 04, 2021
D6
Sat, May 01, 2021 - Sun, May 02, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260858
SPC AC 260858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
mid/upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes on D4/Thursday before
continuing eastward and eventually offshore on D5/Friday. Evolution
of a southern-stream shortwave trough initially phased with the
northern-stream wave is a bit more uncertain, with some guidance
suggesting a quick eastward progression and other guidance favoring
a more displaced, slower eastward progression.
In either case, a cold front attendant to the northern-stream
shortwave will move across the eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday and
D5/Friday, with some potential for the southern portion of the front
to linger over the Southeast until D6/Saturday. Thunderstorms are
possible along this front as it moves eastward, some of which may be
severe. However, overall coverage and timing are uncertain and the
limited predictability precludes delineating any areas.
..Mosier.. 04/26/2021
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