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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 14, 2021
Updated: Mon Jun 14 08:42:03 UTC 2021
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jun 14, 2021
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jun 14, 2021
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jun 14, 2021
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jun 14, 2021
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jun 14, 2021
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jun 14, 2021
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Jun 17, 2021 - Fri, Jun 18, 2021 D7Sun, Jun 20, 2021 - Mon, Jun 21, 2021
D5Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - Sat, Jun 19, 2021 D8Mon, Jun 21, 2021 - Tue, Jun 22, 2021
D6Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - Sun, Jun 20, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 140839
   SPC AC 140839

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

   Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move southeast across
   the northern Plains and upper MS valley on Thursday, with a front
   roughly from WI into NE at 00Z. Storms are most likely during the
   evening and overnight when height falls will be greatest. Forecast
   instability is modest, and low-level winds will be veered,
   suggesting dry air potential (deep-layer theta-e not of particularly
   high quality). At least low-end severe probabilities could be added
   in later outlooks from eastern NE into WI.

   This regime will shift east/southeast into Friday/D5, with
   instability and thunderstorm chances from the lower MO into the OH
   Valleys. The front will be nearly parallel to the winds aloft, but
   training storms within a moist air mass could result in a few severe
   gusts from eastern KS into KY. 

   Beyond Friday/D5, the pattern becomes more unpredictable with the
   possibility of a tropical disturbance over the northern Gulf of
   Mexico, and a possible trough amplification from the northern
   Rockies into the Plains.

   ..Jewell.. 06/14/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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