Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 14, 2021
Updated: Mon Jun 14 08:42:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Jun 17, 2021 - Fri, Jun 18, 2021
D7
Sun, Jun 20, 2021 - Mon, Jun 21, 2021
D5
Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - Sat, Jun 19, 2021
D8
Mon, Jun 21, 2021 - Tue, Jun 22, 2021
D6
Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - Sun, Jun 20, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 140839
SPC AC 140839
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move southeast across
the northern Plains and upper MS valley on Thursday, with a front
roughly from WI into NE at 00Z. Storms are most likely during the
evening and overnight when height falls will be greatest. Forecast
instability is modest, and low-level winds will be veered,
suggesting dry air potential (deep-layer theta-e not of particularly
high quality). At least low-end severe probabilities could be added
in later outlooks from eastern NE into WI.
This regime will shift east/southeast into Friday/D5, with
instability and thunderstorm chances from the lower MO into the OH
Valleys. The front will be nearly parallel to the winds aloft, but
training storms within a moist air mass could result in a few severe
gusts from eastern KS into KY.
Beyond Friday/D5, the pattern becomes more unpredictable with the
possibility of a tropical disturbance over the northern Gulf of
Mexico, and a possible trough amplification from the northern
Rockies into the Plains.
..Jewell.. 06/14/2021
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