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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 2, 2021
Updated: Fri Jul 2 08:31:04 UTC 2021
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 2, 2021
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 2, 2021
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 2, 2021
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 2, 2021
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 2, 2021
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 2, 2021
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, Jul 05, 2021 - Tue, Jul 06, 2021 D7Thu, Jul 08, 2021 - Fri, Jul 09, 2021
D5Tue, Jul 06, 2021 - Wed, Jul 07, 2021 D8Fri, Jul 09, 2021 - Sat, Jul 10, 2021
D6Wed, Jul 07, 2021 - Thu, Jul 08, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 020829
   SPC AC 020829

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0329 AM CDT Fri Jul 02 2021

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range guidance is fairly consistent in maintaining a
   generally low-amplitude, weak flow upper-level pattern for much of
   the Day 4-8 period. A weak shortwave trough will migrate across the
   Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Day 5/Tue. An associated
   surface front will drop southward across parts of the Mid-MO/Upper
   MS Valley and become a focus for thunderstorm development. However,
   poor vertical shear and midlevel lapse rates will likely limit
   organized severe thunderstorm potential. 

   A stronger upper shortwave trough is forecast to develop
   east/southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest around
   Day 8/Fri. Stronger west/northwesterly deep-layer flow is expected
   with this system as a deepening surface low develops and sweeps a
   cold front across the region. Increasing severe potential could
   accompany this system and probabilities may be needed in subsequent
   outlooks if forecast trends are maintained.

   ..Leitman.. 07/02/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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