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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 3, 2021
Updated: Sat Jul 3 08:40:03 UTC 2021
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 3, 2021
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 3, 2021
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 3, 2021
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 3, 2021
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 3, 2021
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 3, 2021
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Tue, Jul 06, 2021 - Wed, Jul 07, 2021 D7Fri, Jul 09, 2021 - Sat, Jul 10, 2021
D5Wed, Jul 07, 2021 - Thu, Jul 08, 2021 D8Sat, Jul 10, 2021 - Sun, Jul 11, 2021
D6Thu, Jul 08, 2021 - Fri, Jul 09, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 030838
   SPC AC 030838

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 AM CDT Sat Jul 03 2021

   Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A persistent weak deep layer flow, low-amplitude upper level pattern
   will persist east of the Rockies on Day 4-5/Tue-Wed. A shortwave
   impulse will track eastward across Quebec and glancing New England
   on Day 4/Tue. This should provide enough support for thunderstorms
   given a moist and unstable airmass across the region. However,
   severe potential is uncertain given weak shear and stronger forcing
   remaining north of the international border. 

   A weak surface trough/area of low pressure will remain draped over
   portions of the Mid/Upper MS and Mid-MO Valleys Days 4-5/Tue-Wed,
   providing weak focus for rounds of convection each day. While some
   strong wind gust potential could accompany this activity in a weak
   northwesterly upper flow regime, predictability remains low given
   lack of stronger forcing.

   By Day 6/Thu, a stronger upper shortwave trough is forecast to shift
   eastward across the northern Rockies to the northern Plains and
   deepen as it slowly progresses eastward across the Great
   Lakes/Midwest through the end of the period. This could bring an
   increase in severe potential across the Dakotas on Day 6/Thu, but
   concerns over quality of low level moisture/instability will
   preclude severe probabilities at this time. A surface low is
   forecast to strengthen over the Upper Midwest on Day 7/Fri and
   spread eastward across the Great Lakes on Day 8/Sat. This could
   result in increasing severe storm potential ahead of an associated
   cold frontal passage. However, uncertainty is high due to large
   spread among medium-range guidance in the evolution of this system,
   precluding probabilities at this time.

   ..Leitman.. 07/03/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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