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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 6, 2021
Updated: Tue Jul 6 08:21:04 UTC 2021
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 6, 2021
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 6, 2021
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 82,303 3,684,967 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Sioux City, IA...St. Joseph, MO...
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 6, 2021
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 6, 2021
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 6, 2021
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 6, 2021
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, Jul 09, 2021 - Sat, Jul 10, 2021 D7Mon, Jul 12, 2021 - Tue, Jul 13, 2021
D5Sat, Jul 10, 2021 - Sun, Jul 11, 2021 D8Tue, Jul 13, 2021 - Wed, Jul 14, 2021
D6Sun, Jul 11, 2021 - Mon, Jul 12, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 060819
   SPC AC 060819

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0319 AM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Day 4/Fri - Mid-MO Valley Vicinity...

   A mid/upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will migrate
   eastward toward the northern/central Plains on Friday, while a broad
   upper trough persists across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
   Mid/upper level west/northwesterly flow is forecast to strengthen
   over the central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity while a surface
   low develops over the central Plains. A very moist and unstable
   airmass will reside over the region, and thunderstorms are expected
   to develop in the vicinity of the low and southward-sagging front
   during the afternoon and possibly grow upscale into an MCS during
   the evening. Given the favorable overlap of moderate effective
   shear, strong instability and increasing forcing, severe storms
   appear likely Friday afternoon into Friday night.

   ...Day 5/Sat Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys...

   Some severe potential could continue into portions of the
   Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity on Day 5/Sat as the mid/upper trough
   meanders eastward. However, spread among medium-range guidance is
   large and confidence low, precluding probabilities at this time.
   This is mainly due to the upper trough weakening on Saturday and
   differences in the evolution of the surface low, along with impacts
   from prior day's convection.

   ...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue...

   Beyond Day 5/Sat, generally weak mid/upper flow will overspread the
   CONUS as the Midwestern trough continues to weaken. By the end of
   the period, a strong upper anticyclone is forecast to persist over
   the southwestern states, while a subtropical ridge builds westward
   into the southeastern U.S.

   ..Leitman.. 07/06/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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