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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 27, 2021
Updated: Fri Aug 27 08:48:04 UTC 2021
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 27, 2021
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 27, 2021
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 27, 2021
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 27, 2021
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 27, 2021
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 27, 2021
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, Aug 30, 2021 - Tue, Aug 31, 2021 D7Thu, Sep 02, 2021 - Fri, Sep 03, 2021
D5Tue, Aug 31, 2021 - Wed, Sep 01, 2021 D8Fri, Sep 03, 2021 - Sat, Sep 04, 2021
D6Wed, Sep 01, 2021 - Thu, Sep 02, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 270846
   SPC AC 270846

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

   Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range guidance suggests that upper ridging will persist
   across the Southwest and into southern Plains into at least the
   middle of next week. Tropical cyclone Ida is expected to make
   landfall late Sunday/early Monday, before then recurving towards the
   TN Valley Monday and Tuesday. Some tornado threat may accompany this
   system, but uncertainty still remains high regarding the overall
   evolution of this system and how buoyant the downstream environment
   over the Southeast/TN Valley will be.

   Farther north, guidance continues to indicate a belt of moderately
   enhanced flow across the northern tier of the CONUS. A shortwave
   trough may move from the Pacific Northeast across the northern
   portions of the Intermountain West on Tuesday and northern Plains
   Wednesday. Some severe threat could result as this wave ejects
   eastward but uncertainty regarding air mass buoyancy as well as
   general uncertainty regarding overall shortwave evolution limit
   predictability.

   ..Mosier.. 08/27/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: August 27, 2021
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