Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 26, 2021
Updated: Tue Oct 26 08:47:04 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Oct 29, 2021 - Sat, Oct 30, 2021
D7
Mon, Nov 01, 2021 - Tue, Nov 02, 2021
D5
Sat, Oct 30, 2021 - Sun, Oct 31, 2021
D8
Tue, Nov 02, 2021 - Wed, Nov 03, 2021
D6
Sun, Oct 31, 2021 - Mon, Nov 01, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260845
SPC AC 260845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A closed mid-level low will move from the TN Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic states on Friday (day 4). A narrow window of
opportunity for destabilization and possibly a severe threat may
unfold early Friday for parts of the immediate coastal areas of NC.
A cold front will sweep offshore into the western Atlantic on Friday
with offshore flow expected through Saturday over the Gulf Coast and
southeast Atlantic coast. In wake of the eastern U.S. trough, a
lower-amplitude/progressive pattern will likely begin Sunday and
continue into the early part of next week.
..Smith.. 10/26/2021
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