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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 28, 2021
Updated: Thu Oct 28 07:55:03 UTC 2021
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 28, 2021
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 28, 2021
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 28, 2021
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 28, 2021
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 28, 2021
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 28, 2021
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Oct 31, 2021 - Mon, Nov 01, 2021 D7Wed, Nov 03, 2021 - Thu, Nov 04, 2021
D5Mon, Nov 01, 2021 - Tue, Nov 02, 2021 D8Thu, Nov 04, 2021 - Fri, Nov 05, 2021
D6Tue, Nov 02, 2021 - Wed, Nov 03, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 280753
   SPC AC 280753

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

   Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   The upper-air pattern will feature a series of troughs moving across
   the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and resulting in a mean trough
   situated over the Great Lakes during the extended period.  Surface
   high pressure will generally be located over the central U.S. with
   little in the way of return flow into the northern Gulf Coast during
   the latter part of the period.  As a result, a low-potential
   highlight for severe thunderstorm activity is warranted.

   ..Smith.. 10/28/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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