Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 11, 2021
Updated: Thu Nov 11 09:45:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Nov 14, 2021 - Mon, Nov 15, 2021
D7
Wed, Nov 17, 2021 - Thu, Nov 18, 2021
D5
Mon, Nov 15, 2021 - Tue, Nov 16, 2021
D8
Thu, Nov 18, 2021 - Fri, Nov 19, 2021
D6
Tue, Nov 16, 2021 - Wed, Nov 17, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 110943
SPC AC 110943
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8
period. An upper level trough will develop eastward from the MS
Valley to the western Atlantic through Day 5/Mon. A brief period of
upper level ridging will spread across the Plains and the eastern
U.S. on Day 6/Tue before another upper shortwave trough shifts east
from the northern Rockies into the Plains and Upper Midwest on Day
7/Wed and the eastern third of the CONUS by Day 8/Thu. Surface high
pressure will persist over the Plains into the central/southern U.S.
for much of the period. This will keep Gulf moisture well offshore
and thunderstorm potential will be low. As the upper trough ejects
east into the Plains and Upper Midwest late in the period, some
modest moisture return is forecast across the southern Plains in
response to a developing lee trough. While this could bring
increasing chances for thunderstorms to parts of the southern Plains
vicinity, severe potential still appears low/too uncertain at this
time.
..Leitman.. 11/11/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
