Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 12, 2021
Updated: Fri Nov 12 08:02:04 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Nov 15, 2021 - Tue, Nov 16, 2021
D7
Thu, Nov 18, 2021 - Fri, Nov 19, 2021
D5
Tue, Nov 16, 2021 - Wed, Nov 17, 2021
D8
Fri, Nov 19, 2021 - Sat, Nov 20, 2021
D6
Wed, Nov 17, 2021 - Thu, Nov 18, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 120800
SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough over the eastern states should move eastward and
over the western Atlantic on Day 4/Monday, with minimal severe
potential evident across the CONUS due to a lack of low-level
moisture and instability. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably
good agreement that another upper trough should amplify as it ejects
from the western states across the Plains around the middle of next
week. Modest low-level moisture return appears possible by Day
6/Wednesday across parts of the southern Plains ahead of a cold
front. However, forecast instability appears rather weak ahead of
the front. And, with the better forcing associated with the upper
trough probably remaining farther north over the central/northern
Plains, organized severe potential on Wednesday still appears quite
low. This upper trough should continue to develop eastward across
the central/eastern states late next week, but limited low-level
moisture return across these regions suggest the overall potential
for severe storms will likely remain low across the CONUS through
Day 8/Friday.
..Gleason.. 11/12/2021
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