Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 13, 2021
Updated: Sat Nov 13 08:02:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Nov 16, 2021 - Wed, Nov 17, 2021
D7
Fri, Nov 19, 2021 - Sat, Nov 20, 2021
D5
Wed, Nov 17, 2021 - Thu, Nov 18, 2021
D8
Sat, Nov 20, 2021 - Sun, Nov 21, 2021
D6
Thu, Nov 18, 2021 - Fri, Nov 19, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 130800
SPC AC 130800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough should move from the northern Rockies across the
northern/central Plains on Day 4/Tuesday. Modest low-level moisture
return should continue across parts of the southern Plains into the
lower/mid MS Valley through Day 5/Wednesday, and storms may develop
across parts of these regions by Wednesday evening. But, instability
is forecast to remain very weak ahead of an eastward-moving cold
front, and this will likely keep any organized severe potential
quite low. There is some uncertainty regarding the evolution of the
upper trough from the central into eastern CONUS late next week, but
limited moisture return and meager instability ahead of this feature
suggest the overall potential for severe storms should remain low
across the CONUS through the end of the period.
..Gleason.. 11/13/2021
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