Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 14, 2021
Updated: Sun Nov 14 08:02:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Nov 17, 2021 - Thu, Nov 18, 2021
D7
Sat, Nov 20, 2021 - Sun, Nov 21, 2021
D5
Thu, Nov 18, 2021 - Fri, Nov 19, 2021
D8
Sun, Nov 21, 2021 - Mon, Nov 22, 2021
D6
Fri, Nov 19, 2021 - Sat, Nov 20, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 140800
SPC AC 140800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Sun Nov 14 2021
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough is forecast by medium-range guidance to continue
advancing eastward across the central/eastern CONUS from Day
4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. Even with modest low-level
moisture return ahead of an attendant cold front, it appears very
unlikely that sufficient instability will develop across the warm
sector to support an organized severe risk. In the wake of this
upper trough, there are some indications in guidance that gradual
amplification of the mid-level westerlies may occur over parts of
the western/central CONUS by next weekend. If a pronounced
upper-level trough can eventually develop over the Plains in tandem
with increasing low-level moisture across the southern Plains and
lower MS Valley, then some severe threat may materialize by late
next weekend across these areas. Regardless, confidence in the
evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern across the CONUS remains low
at this extended time frame, suggesting overall low predictability.
..Gleason.. 11/14/2021
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