Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 15, 2021
Updated: Mon Nov 15 09:02:04 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Nov 18, 2021 - Fri, Nov 19, 2021
D7
Sun, Nov 21, 2021 - Mon, Nov 22, 2021
D5
Fri, Nov 19, 2021 - Sat, Nov 20, 2021
D8
Mon, Nov 22, 2021 - Tue, Nov 23, 2021
D6
Sat, Nov 20, 2021 - Sun, Nov 21, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 150900
SPC AC 150900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A highly amplified upper trough should move quickly eastward from
the MS Valley across the eastern CONUS on Day 4/Thursday. Latest
medium-range guidance continues to indicate that low-level moisture
return ahead of a related surface cold front will remain
insufficient to support even weak instability across the warm
sector. Accordingly, the overall severe threat on Thursday appears
low across the CONUS. This upper trough is forecast to continue
eastward across the remainder of the East Coast and into the western
Atlantic on Day 5/Friday. The surface cold front associated with
this upper trough should move southward across the FL Peninsula,
with little severe potential evident. In the wake of this upper
trough, gradual amplification of the mid-level westerlies may occur
by the upcoming weekend across parts of the western/central CONUS.
But, it appears unlikely that robust low-level moisture will advance
inland over the southern Plains or Southeast, suggesting continued
low severe potential across the CONUS through early next week.
..Gleason.. 11/15/2021
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