Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 16, 2021
Updated: Tue Nov 16 09:02:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Nov 19, 2021 - Sat, Nov 20, 2021
D7
Mon, Nov 22, 2021 - Tue, Nov 23, 2021
D5
Sat, Nov 20, 2021 - Sun, Nov 21, 2021
D8
Tue, Nov 23, 2021 - Wed, Nov 24, 2021
D6
Sun, Nov 21, 2021 - Mon, Nov 22, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160900
SPC AC 160900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that an upper trough
will continue to move quickly eastward over the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast states on Day 4/Friday. Substantial low-level moisture
will be confined to parts of the FL Peninsula to the south of a
front in this time frame, with little severe potential evident.
Generally westerly mid-level flow across much of the CONUS on Day
5/Saturday should undergo gradual amplification as another
large-scale upper trough potentially develops over the central CONUS
by Day 6/Sunday. Some low-level moisture may return northward over
portions of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley over the
upcoming weekend ahead of this upper trough and a related surface
cold front. However, instability is currently forecast to remain
quite weak, and the overall severe potential across these regions
still appears quite low. By early next week, the upper trough should
advance over the eastern CONUS, although confidence in its evolution
remains limited. Regardless, the potential for organized severe
storms appears low across the CONUS through early next week, owing
to only modest low-level moisture return ahead of an advancing cold
front.
..Gleason.. 11/16/2021
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