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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 17, 2021
Updated: Wed Nov 17 09:02:03 UTC 2021
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 17, 2021
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 17, 2021
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 17, 2021
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 17, 2021
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 17, 2021
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 17, 2021
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, Nov 20, 2021 - Sun, Nov 21, 2021 D7Tue, Nov 23, 2021 - Wed, Nov 24, 2021
D5Sun, Nov 21, 2021 - Mon, Nov 22, 2021 D8Wed, Nov 24, 2021 - Thu, Nov 25, 2021
D6Mon, Nov 22, 2021 - Tue, Nov 23, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 170900
   SPC AC 170900

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021

   Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Quasi-zonal mid-level flow across a majority of the CONUS early this
   upcoming weekend should transition to a more amplified pattern as an
   upper trough is forecast to develop and quickly strengthen over the
   central/eastern states by Day 6/Monday. This upper trough may become
   highly amplified and possibly even become a closed low over the East
   Coast by Day 7/Tuesday. Regardless of this feature's eventual
   evolution, medium-range guidance remains consistent in showing a
   lack of substantial moisture return inland from the Gulf of Mexico,
   which will likely limit both the development of meaningful
   instability and potential for organized severe thunderstorms across
   the CONUS through the extended forecast period.

   ..Gleason.. 11/17/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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