Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 19, 2021
Updated: Fri Nov 19 09:34:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Nov 22, 2021 - Tue, Nov 23, 2021
D7
Thu, Nov 25, 2021 - Fri, Nov 26, 2021
D5
Tue, Nov 23, 2021 - Wed, Nov 24, 2021
D8
Fri, Nov 26, 2021 - Sat, Nov 27, 2021
D6
Wed, Nov 24, 2021 - Thu, Nov 25, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190932
SPC AC 190932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CST Fri Nov 19 2021
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that an amplified western
CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough upper pattern will be in place
early D4/Monday morning. This upper pattern is forecast to remain
progressive throughout much of the period, with the western CONUS
upper ridge moving through the Plains/MS Valley on D5/Tuesday and
much of the eastern CONUS on D6/Wednesday.
A more broadly cyclonic pattern will exist in its wake over the
western CONUS on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday before more
deepening/amplification of this troughing occurs late D6/Wednesday
into D7/Thursday. Moisture return is anticipated across the southern
Plains on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday ahead of this trough. Showers
and thunderstorms currently appear likely across portions of the
southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on D7/Thursday and D8/Friday as
the trough and associated cold front interact with this increasing
moisture/buoyancy. Some severe storms are possible, but confidence
in coverage and location is low.
..Mosier.. 11/19/2021
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