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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 22, 2021
Updated: Mon Nov 22 09:33:03 UTC 2021
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 22, 2021
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 22, 2021
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 22, 2021
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 22, 2021
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 22, 2021
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 22, 2021
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Nov 25, 2021 - Fri, Nov 26, 2021 D7Sun, Nov 28, 2021 - Mon, Nov 29, 2021
D5Fri, Nov 26, 2021 - Sat, Nov 27, 2021 D8Mon, Nov 29, 2021 - Tue, Nov 30, 2021
D6Sat, Nov 27, 2021 - Sun, Nov 28, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 220931
   SPC AC 220931

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A cold front is forecast to stretch from Lower MI southwestward into
   the TX Hill country early D4/Thursday, with continued southeastward
   progression expected throughout the day. Thunderstorms are possible
   near this front, but limited buoyancy and displacement south of the
   stronger flow aloft should limit severe storm coverage.

   Stable conditions are expected across the central and eastern CONUS
   in the wake of this front on D5/Friday. Another front is expected to
   move through the Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, reinforcing
   the already stable conditions.

   ..Mosier.. 11/22/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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