Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 23, 2021
Updated: Tue Nov 23 09:39:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Nov 26, 2021 - Sat, Nov 27, 2021
D7
Mon, Nov 29, 2021 - Tue, Nov 30, 2021
D5
Sat, Nov 27, 2021 - Sun, Nov 28, 2021
D8
Tue, Nov 30, 2021 - Wed, Dec 01, 2021
D6
Sun, Nov 28, 2021 - Mon, Nov 29, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230937
SPC AC 230937
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Tue Nov 23 2021
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Guidance is in good agreement that a cold front will extend from the
VA Tidewater south-southwestward to the FL Panhandle early
D4/Friday. Continued eastward progression of this front will take it
quickly off the remainder of the Eastern Seaboard and through much
of FL on D4/Friday. Stable conditions are expected in wake of this
front across the CONUS.
A belt of moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend from the
Pacific Northwest eastward through the northern Plains and then
southeastward across central portions of the eastern CONUS. Several
shortwave troughs are expected to progress through this stronger
flow throughout the period, with each shortwave accompanied by a
surge of dry continental air. As such, stable conditions are
expected to prevail into at least early next week, with very low
potential for severe thunderstorms.
..Mosier.. 11/23/2021
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