Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 24, 2021
Updated: Wed Nov 24 08:49:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Nov 27, 2021 - Sun, Nov 28, 2021
D7
Tue, Nov 30, 2021 - Wed, Dec 01, 2021
D5
Sun, Nov 28, 2021 - Mon, Nov 29, 2021
D8
Wed, Dec 01, 2021 - Thu, Dec 02, 2021
D6
Mon, Nov 29, 2021 - Tue, Nov 30, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240847
SPC AC 240847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a split-flow upper
pattern will be in place across the CONUS early D4/Saturday. A
shortwave trough is expected to progress through the northern
stream, moving from northern/central Plains across the Mid MS Valley
on D4/Saturday and through the Mid-Atlantic Coast early D5/Sunday.
Another shortwave through will follow in the wake of first, with
this train of shortwaves helping to maintain the upper troughing
across the eastern CONUS int early next week.
An upper low over northwest Mexico early D4/Saturday will progress
slowly northeastward within the weak southern stream, gradually
devolving into an open wave over the southern Plains by late
D5/Sunday.
Guidance differs on the timing and strength, but a series of
shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the northern stream
during the first half of next week. Each shortwave will be
accompanied by a surge of dry continental air and stable conditions
are expected to prevail through the middle of next week, with very
low potential for severe thunderstorms.
..Mosier.. 11/24/2021
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