Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left     navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 25, 2021
Updated: Thu Nov 25 09:33:03 UTC 2021
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 25, 2021
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 25, 2021
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 25, 2021
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 25, 2021
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 25, 2021
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 25, 2021
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Nov 28, 2021 - Mon, Nov 29, 2021 D7Wed, Dec 01, 2021 - Thu, Dec 02, 2021
D5Mon, Nov 29, 2021 - Tue, Nov 30, 2021 D8Thu, Dec 02, 2021 - Fri, Dec 03, 2021
D6Tue, Nov 30, 2021 - Wed, Dec 01, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 250931
   SPC AC 250931

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 AM CST Thu Nov 25 2021

   Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A pair of shortwave troughs, one over the Upper OH Valley and one
   entering the Lower MS Valley, are expected to progress eastward
   within the cyclonic flow aloft anticipated to be in place across the
   eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday. These shortwaves should move off the
   East Coast by early D5/Monday morning, with an expansive belt of
   northwest flow aloft in their wake extending from the Pacific
   Northwest to off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast. A series of
   shortwave troughs is forecast to move through this flow aloft,
   helping to reinforce the dry/stable conditions east of the Rockies.
   This overall pattern evolution is expected to result in a very low
   potential for severe thunderstorms.

   ..Mosier.. 11/25/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us
NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 01, 1970		 Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary 		Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities