Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 26, 2021
Updated: Fri Nov 26 08:32:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Nov 29, 2021 - Tue, Nov 30, 2021
D7
Thu, Dec 02, 2021 - Fri, Dec 03, 2021
D5
Tue, Nov 30, 2021 - Wed, Dec 01, 2021
D8
Fri, Dec 03, 2021 - Sat, Dec 04, 2021
D6
Wed, Dec 01, 2021 - Thu, Dec 02, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260830
SPC AC 260830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Fri Nov 26 2021
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A weak belt of high-level westerlies may persist from the
subtropical eastern Pacific through the Gulf of Mexico and Florida
Peninsula vicinity through this period. However, models suggest
that a belt of mid/upper westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude
Pacific will remain much more prominent. Within this regime, it
appears that broad mid-level ridging will persist across the
northern Pacific coast into much of the northern Great Plains, while
downstream troughing only gradually loses amplitude and broadens
across the eastern U.S. into western Atlantic.
Beneath resultant confluent mid/upper flow between the two regimes,
cold surface high pressure appears likely to maintain relatively dry
and stable conditions across much of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast
and Gulf of Mexico into the middle to latter portion of next week.
Thereafter, models indicate that there may be substantive
amplification of troughing within the mid-latitude westerlies across
the Mississippi Valley vicinity by late next week. While this
probably will be accompanied by the development of southerly or
southwesterly return flow off the Gulf of Mexico, low-level
moistening supportive of appreciable severe thunderstorm potential
seems unlikely through at least next Friday (December 3rd).
..Kerr.. 11/26/2021
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