Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 1, 2022
Updated: Sat Jan 1 09:42:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Jan 04, 2022 - Wed, Jan 05, 2022
D7
Fri, Jan 07, 2022 - Sat, Jan 08, 2022
D5
Wed, Jan 05, 2022 - Thu, Jan 06, 2022
D8
Sat, Jan 08, 2022 - Sun, Jan 09, 2022
D6
Thu, Jan 06, 2022 - Fri, Jan 07, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 010940
SPC AC 010940
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A zonal flow pattern is forecast across the central and eastern U.S.
at the start of the period, with an upper-level trough developing
across the Great Plains on Tuesday. The through is forecast to move
into the eastern U.S. and deamplify by Thursday as another
upper-level trough in its wake moves into the Mississippi Valley.
Moisture return with this system should be limited keeping
thunderstorm chances very low across the continental United States
from Tuesday to Thursday.
West-northwest mid-level flow is forecast to develop across the
central and eastern U.S. on Friday. A low amplitude upper-level
ridge is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Saturday.
Moisture return should continue to be limited late in the Day 4 to 8
period. The chance for thunderstorms on Saturday should remain
confined to the Texas and Louisiana coasts along the northwestern
edge of a moist airmass, which could begin to return northward into
the southern Plains Saturday night.
Overall, the severe potential is expected to be low across the
continental United States during the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/01/2022
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