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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 2, 2022
Updated: Sun Jan 2 09:54:03 UTC 2022
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 2, 2022
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 2, 2022
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 2, 2022
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 2, 2022
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 2, 2022
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 2, 2022
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Wed, Jan 05, 2022 - Thu, Jan 06, 2022 D7Sat, Jan 08, 2022 - Sun, Jan 09, 2022
D5Thu, Jan 06, 2022 - Fri, Jan 07, 2022 D8Sun, Jan 09, 2022 - Mon, Jan 10, 2022
D6Fri, Jan 07, 2022 - Sat, Jan 08, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 020952
   SPC AC 020952

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 AM CST Sun Jan 02 2022

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   On Wednesday, an upper-level trough is forecast across the
   Mississippi Valley with northwest flow over much of the western U.S.
   The trough is forecast to move eastward to the Eastern Seaboard by
   Friday. This pattern would keep a dry airmass in place across most
   of the continental United States during the mid to late week. As a
   result, the chance for thunderstorms is expected to be low across
   the nation from Wednesday to Friday.

   On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to amplify in the
   western states with southwest mid-level flow developing over the
   eastern half the nation. In response, low-level moisture may return
   northward into the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley on
   Saturday and Saturday night. Thunderstorms could develop along the
   western Gulf Coast Saturday afternoon and evening. That chance for
   storms would spread northward across the lower to mid Mississippi
   Valley on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Although a severe threat
   would be possible on Sunday if enough instability can develop ahead
   of the front, uncertainty is too substantial on Day 8 to introduce a
   threat area.

   ..Broyles.. 01/02/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: January 02, 2022
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