Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 2, 2022
Updated: Sun Jan 2 09:54:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Jan 05, 2022 - Thu, Jan 06, 2022
D7
Sat, Jan 08, 2022 - Sun, Jan 09, 2022
D5
Thu, Jan 06, 2022 - Fri, Jan 07, 2022
D8
Sun, Jan 09, 2022 - Mon, Jan 10, 2022
D6
Fri, Jan 07, 2022 - Sat, Jan 08, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020952
SPC AC 020952
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Sun Jan 02 2022
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Wednesday, an upper-level trough is forecast across the
Mississippi Valley with northwest flow over much of the western U.S.
The trough is forecast to move eastward to the Eastern Seaboard by
Friday. This pattern would keep a dry airmass in place across most
of the continental United States during the mid to late week. As a
result, the chance for thunderstorms is expected to be low across
the nation from Wednesday to Friday.
On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to amplify in the
western states with southwest mid-level flow developing over the
eastern half the nation. In response, low-level moisture may return
northward into the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley on
Saturday and Saturday night. Thunderstorms could develop along the
western Gulf Coast Saturday afternoon and evening. That chance for
storms would spread northward across the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Although a severe threat
would be possible on Sunday if enough instability can develop ahead
of the front, uncertainty is too substantial on Day 8 to introduce a
threat area.
..Broyles.. 01/02/2022
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