Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 3, 2022
Updated: Mon Jan 3 09:48:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Jan 06, 2022 - Fri, Jan 07, 2022
D7
Sun, Jan 09, 2022 - Mon, Jan 10, 2022
D5
Fri, Jan 07, 2022 - Sat, Jan 08, 2022
D8
Mon, Jan 10, 2022 - Tue, Jan 11, 2022
D6
Sat, Jan 08, 2022 - Sun, Jan 09, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030946
SPC AC 030946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CST Mon Jan 03 2022
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast on Thursday across
much of the continental United States. At the surface, high pressure
will be entrenched across the central and eastern states. This
feature is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic by
Saturday which should allow for moisture return onto the Texas
Coastal Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible along the northern
edge of this moist airmass Saturday afternoon and evening. Moisture
return could continue into the south-central U.S. Saturday night
into Sunday as a cold front approaches quickly from the northwest,
but model spread concerning that scenario is large. Thunderstorms
will again be possible ahead of the front Sunday afternoon and
evening from the Arklatex into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
Although a severe threat could develop on Sunday, uncertainty at
this range is substantial. The front is currently forecast to move
into the western Gulf of Mexico on Monday ending the potential for
thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast.
..Broyles.. 01/03/2022
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