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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 3, 2022
Updated: Mon Jan 3 09:48:03 UTC 2022
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 3, 2022
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 3, 2022
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 3, 2022
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 3, 2022
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 3, 2022
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 3, 2022
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Jan 06, 2022 - Fri, Jan 07, 2022 D7Sun, Jan 09, 2022 - Mon, Jan 10, 2022
D5Fri, Jan 07, 2022 - Sat, Jan 08, 2022 D8Mon, Jan 10, 2022 - Tue, Jan 11, 2022
D6Sat, Jan 08, 2022 - Sun, Jan 09, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 030946
   SPC AC 030946

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 AM CST Mon Jan 03 2022

   Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   West-northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast on Thursday across
   much of the continental United States. At the surface, high pressure
   will be entrenched across the central and eastern states. This
   feature is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic by
   Saturday which should allow for moisture return onto the Texas
   Coastal Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible along the northern
   edge of this moist airmass Saturday afternoon and evening. Moisture
   return could continue into the south-central U.S. Saturday night
   into Sunday as a cold front approaches quickly from the northwest,
   but model spread concerning that scenario is large. Thunderstorms
   will again be possible ahead of the front Sunday afternoon and
   evening from the Arklatex into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
   Although a severe threat could develop on Sunday, uncertainty at
   this range is substantial. The front is currently forecast to move
   into the western Gulf of Mexico on Monday ending the potential for
   thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast.

   ..Broyles.. 01/03/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: January 03, 2022
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