Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 5, 2022
Updated: Wed Jan 5 09:34:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Jan 08, 2022 - Sun, Jan 09, 2022
D7
Tue, Jan 11, 2022 - Wed, Jan 12, 2022
D5
Sun, Jan 09, 2022 - Mon, Jan 10, 2022
D8
Wed, Jan 12, 2022 - Thu, Jan 13, 2022
D6
Mon, Jan 10, 2022 - Tue, Jan 11, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050932
SPC AC 050932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CST Wed Jan 05 2022
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Rockies
on Saturday/D4, emerging into the Plains on Sunday/D5. This will
occur as a strong upper trough amplifies across the northern Plains
and Great Lakes. The initial trough will quickly become absorbed by
the larger amplification, which will continue through Monday/D6
before departing the northeastern states after Tuesday/D7.
During the Saturday/D4 to Sunday/D5 period, southerly winds will
result in increasing moisture from eastern TX across the lower MS
Valley, and widespread rain and thunderstorms are forecast. Mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead
of a developing cold front. This front will especially surge on
Sunday/D5, and will likely undercut convection as it develops. While
strengthening mid/upper flow will lead to favorable shear,
predictability for anything more than low-end severe is low given
the aforementioned weak instability and surging cold front. By
Monday/D6, the front will clear the southeastern states, resulting
in drying conditions.
..Jewell.. 01/05/2022
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