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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 6, 2022
Updated: Thu Jan 6 07:52:02 UTC 2022
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 6, 2022
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 6, 2022
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 6, 2022
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 6, 2022
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 6, 2022
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 6, 2022
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Jan 09, 2022 - Mon, Jan 10, 2022 D7Wed, Jan 12, 2022 - Thu, Jan 13, 2022
D5Mon, Jan 10, 2022 - Tue, Jan 11, 2022 D8Thu, Jan 13, 2022 - Fri, Jan 14, 2022
D6Tue, Jan 11, 2022 - Wed, Jan 12, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 060750
   SPC AC 060750

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 AM CST Thu Jan 06 2022

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   On Sunday/D4, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern
   Plains will merge with a larger-scale trough which will amplify
   across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. A cold front will
   rapidly move toward the OH Valley, extending southwestward toward
   the TX Coast. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will initially support
   scattered thunderstorms from southeast TX eastward along the Gulf
   Coast, but the front is likely to undercut them quickly. A marginal
   risk for severe storms may eventually be needed for parts of the
   region.

   By Monday/D5, the cold front will quickly surge across most of the
   Southeast, with perhaps a brief period of shower potential over FL
   before winds quickly veer and cause drying. The relatively stable
   conditions will then persist over the eastern CONUS through the
   Thursday/D8 period due to high pressure in the wake of this large
   upper trough.

   ..Jewell.. 01/06/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: January 06, 2022
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