Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 6, 2022
Updated: Thu Jan 6 07:52:02 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Jan 09, 2022 - Mon, Jan 10, 2022
D7
Wed, Jan 12, 2022 - Thu, Jan 13, 2022
D5
Mon, Jan 10, 2022 - Tue, Jan 11, 2022
D8
Thu, Jan 13, 2022 - Fri, Jan 14, 2022
D6
Tue, Jan 11, 2022 - Wed, Jan 12, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060750
SPC AC 060750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CST Thu Jan 06 2022
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Sunday/D4, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern
Plains will merge with a larger-scale trough which will amplify
across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. A cold front will
rapidly move toward the OH Valley, extending southwestward toward
the TX Coast. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will initially support
scattered thunderstorms from southeast TX eastward along the Gulf
Coast, but the front is likely to undercut them quickly. A marginal
risk for severe storms may eventually be needed for parts of the
region.
By Monday/D5, the cold front will quickly surge across most of the
Southeast, with perhaps a brief period of shower potential over FL
before winds quickly veer and cause drying. The relatively stable
conditions will then persist over the eastern CONUS through the
Thursday/D8 period due to high pressure in the wake of this large
upper trough.
..Jewell.. 01/06/2022
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