Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 7, 2022
Updated: Fri Jan 7 08:49:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Jan 10, 2022 - Tue, Jan 11, 2022
D7
Thu, Jan 13, 2022 - Fri, Jan 14, 2022
D5
Tue, Jan 11, 2022 - Wed, Jan 12, 2022
D8
Fri, Jan 14, 2022 - Sat, Jan 15, 2022
D6
Wed, Jan 12, 2022 - Thu, Jan 13, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070847
SPC AC 070847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CST Fri Jan 07 2022
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Monday/D4, a large and deep upper trough will exist over the
northeastern part of the CONUS, with cool/dry air pushing south
behind a cold front. This front will stretch from the central Gulf
of Mexico into the western Atlantic, with the only instability over
the FL Peninsula. While a few showers or weak thunderstorms will be
possible over FL during the day, severe weather is unlikely due to
weak instability and rapidly veering low-level winds.
For Tuesday/D5 through Thursday/D7, the entire CONUS is expected to
be void of thunderstorms due to a large surface high over the
central and eastern states. Minor thunderstorms chances may develop
over parts of TX toward Friday/D8 as an upper low moves from the
southwestern states eastward, but severe weather is clearly unlikely
due to very weak instability. Overall, models show predictability
issues beyond Thursday/D7 with the movement of the southwestern
upper low and further trough development across the West.
..Jewell.. 01/07/2022
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