Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 8, 2022
Updated: Sat Jan 8 08:26:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Jan 11, 2022 - Wed, Jan 12, 2022
D7
Fri, Jan 14, 2022 - Sat, Jan 15, 2022
D5
Wed, Jan 12, 2022 - Thu, Jan 13, 2022
D8
Sat, Jan 15, 2022 - Sun, Jan 16, 2022
D6
Thu, Jan 13, 2022 - Fri, Jan 14, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080824
SPC AC 080824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Sat Jan 08 2022
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Models are in relatively good agreement through the period,
depicting a dearth of instability through at least Thursday/D6.
Low-level moisture is forecast to increase in a relative sense
during the Friday/D7 to Saturday/D8 time frame from eastern Texas
and along the northern Gulf Coast, with 60s F dewpoints possible as
an upper trough amplifies across the Plains. However, only general
thunderstorms are forecast along a cold front Friday and Saturday as
instability will be weak. As such, severe weather is unlikely
through Saturday/D8 across the CONUS.
..Jewell.. 01/08/2022
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