Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 17, 2022
Updated: Mon Jan 17 09:02:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Jan 20, 2022 - Fri, Jan 21, 2022
D7
Sun, Jan 23, 2022 - Mon, Jan 24, 2022
D5
Fri, Jan 21, 2022 - Sat, Jan 22, 2022
D8
Mon, Jan 24, 2022 - Tue, Jan 25, 2022
D6
Sat, Jan 22, 2022 - Sun, Jan 23, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 170900
SPC AC 170900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CST Mon Jan 17 2022
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low across the CONUS on Day
4/Thursday as a cold front moves southward and over the Gulf of
Mexico. There is still a fair amount of spread in medium-range
guidance regarding the placement, amplitude, and evolution of an
upper trough over the central/eastern states on Day 5/Friday. If a
slower and more amplified solution occurs, as suggested by some
guidance, then there may be potential for isolated severe
thunderstorms across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula and
the Keys, mainly Friday evening/night. This potential would be
dependent on sufficient low-level moisture return and adequate
destabilization, which appear highly questionable at this time.
Accordingly, far too much uncertainty exists to include a 15% severe
area for Day 5/Friday, but trends will continue to be monitored.
Negligible severe potential is evident from Day 6/Saturday through
Day 8/Monday owing to a lack of meaningful low-level moisture and
instability forecast across the CONUS.
..Gleason.. 01/17/2022
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