Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 18, 2022
Updated: Tue Jan 18 09:05:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Jan 21, 2022 - Sat, Jan 22, 2022
D7
Mon, Jan 24, 2022 - Tue, Jan 25, 2022
D5
Sat, Jan 22, 2022 - Sun, Jan 23, 2022
D8
Tue, Jan 25, 2022 - Wed, Jan 26, 2022
D6
Sun, Jan 23, 2022 - Mon, Jan 24, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180903
SPC AC 180903
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement that
a slower and more amplified upper trough should move eastward from
the central to eastern CONUS on Day 4/Friday. Rich low-level
moisture is forecast to return northward across parts of the
southern/central FL Peninsula and the Keys through Friday night to
the south of a developing front. Although the stronger large-scale
forcing associated with the upper trough may be displaced slightly
to the north of this region, there are indications that both
deep-layer shear and instability will increase on Day 4/Friday
across south/central FL. Thunderstorms that develop in this regime
may have the potential to become strong to severe, and low
probabilities for severe may need to be included in a later outlook
if current model trends continue. Still, there is a fair amount of
uncertainty regarding how much instability will develop, and a 15%
severe area for Day 4/Friday does not appear warranted at this time.
Negligible severe potential is evident across the CONUS from Day
5/Saturday through Day 7/Monday owing to a lack of meaningful
low-level moisture and forecast instability. By next Tuesday (Day
8), there are some indications that a fast-moving shortwave trough
could encourage a surface low to develop eastward over the Gulf of
Mexico, and for low-level moisture to return northward across parts
of the FL Peninsula. There is far to much uncertainty in this
scenario occurring to include a severe delineation at this extended
time frame.
..Gleason.. 01/18/2022
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