Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 20, 2022
Updated: Thu Jan 20 09:02:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Jan 23, 2022 - Mon, Jan 24, 2022
D7
Wed, Jan 26, 2022 - Thu, Jan 27, 2022
D5
Mon, Jan 24, 2022 - Tue, Jan 25, 2022
D8
Thu, Jan 27, 2022 - Fri, Jan 28, 2022
D6
Tue, Jan 25, 2022 - Wed, Jan 26, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200900
SPC AC 200900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The lack of substantial low-level moisture is expected to greatly
limit organized severe thunderstorm chances across the CONUS on both
Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday. From late Monday night into Day
6/Tuesday, a southern-stream shortwave trough may advance quickly
from the vicinity of coastal TX across the northern Gulf of Mexico
and adjacent Deep South, as large-scale upper troughing develops
over most of the central/eastern states. There may be sufficient
low-level moisture returning northward across parts of the FL
Peninsula, in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level winds and
gradually increasing but still weak instability, to support an
isolated severe threat on Day 6/Tuesday. Still, there is far too
much uncertainty in the evolution and timing of the upper trough to
include a 15% severe area at this extended time frame. Once the
surface cold front associated with the shortwave trough clears the
Atlantic Coast, offshore trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico should
preclude meaningful severe potential across the CONUS from Day
7/Wednesday onward, due to a lack of both instability and low-level
moisture.
..Gleason.. 01/20/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
