Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 22, 2022
Updated: Sat Jan 22 09:46:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Jan 25, 2022 - Wed, Jan 26, 2022
D7
Fri, Jan 28, 2022 - Sat, Jan 29, 2022
D5
Wed, Jan 26, 2022 - Thu, Jan 27, 2022
D8
Sat, Jan 29, 2022 - Sun, Jan 30, 2022
D6
Thu, Jan 27, 2022 - Fri, Jan 28, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220943
SPC AC 220943
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to be centered near
the central Gulf Coast early D4/Tuesday morning, before continuing
northeastward throughout the day. Timing and strength differences
within the guidance as well as uncertainty regarding the location of
an attendant surface low result in low predictability on D4/Tuesday.
Some thunderstorms could occur across FL if the shortwave and
attendant surface low take a more northerly track, but warm
temperatures aloft should limited buoyancy and temper any severe
potential.
After D4/Tuesday, cyclonic flow aloft is expected to remain in place
over the central and eastern CONUS through at least D7/Friday,
reinforced by a series of substantial shortwave troughs. At the same
time, upper ridging will begin to build over the western CONUS while
gradually drifting eastward. By D7/Friday, medium-range guidance is
in good agreement that an amplified western CONUS ridge/eastern
CONUS trough upper pattern will be in place.
Continual reinforcement of the dry and stable conditions will keep
severe thunderstorm potential very low from D5/Wednesday through
D8/Saturday.
..Mosier.. 01/22/2022
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