Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 24, 2022
Updated: Mon Jan 24 09:28:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Jan 27, 2022 - Fri, Jan 28, 2022
D7
Sun, Jan 30, 2022 - Mon, Jan 31, 2022
D5
Fri, Jan 28, 2022 - Sat, Jan 29, 2022
D8
Mon, Jan 31, 2022 - Tue, Feb 01, 2022
D6
Sat, Jan 29, 2022 - Sun, Jan 30, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240926
SPC AC 240926
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An amplified upper pattern is expected across the CONUS on
D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as a strong shortwave trough moves from
the Plains across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and Southeast States and
an upper ridge moves from the West Coast through the Intermountain
West. The upper pattern will likely deamplify this weekend as the
strong shortwave continues eastward/northeastward off the East Coast
and the upper ridging loses amplitude over the Plains.
This progressive upper pattern, which also precedes this extended
period, will result in predominantly offshore trajectories fostering
dry and stable conditions across the majority of the CONUS.
Consequently, limited low-level moisture should keep the severe
weather potential very low.
..Mosier.. 01/24/2022
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