Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 25, 2022
Updated: Tue Jan 25 10:02:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Jan 28, 2022 - Sat, Jan 29, 2022
D7
Mon, Jan 31, 2022 - Tue, Feb 01, 2022
D5
Sat, Jan 29, 2022 - Sun, Jan 30, 2022
D8
Tue, Feb 01, 2022 - Wed, Feb 02, 2022
D6
Sun, Jan 30, 2022 - Mon, Jan 31, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 251000
SPC AC 251000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that an amplified western
CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough upper pattern will be in place
early D4/Friday. A shortwave trough is expected to progress through
the base of the eastern CONUS upper troughing on D4/Friday before
then tracking through its eastern periphery on D5/Saturday. This
shortwave is expected to mature throughout that same period,
eventually deepening into a closer upper low. Guidance varies on
where this closed low develops, varying from off the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast to off of Maine. At the same time, the western
CONUS upper ridge is forecast to dampen as it moves from the
Intermountain West through the High Pains. Stable conditions will
preclude any severe threat from D4/Friday and D5/Saturday.
After D5/Saturday, a southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to
move eastward from southern CA towards the southern/central Plains.
However, guidance differs on the strength and location of this
shortwave. Another shortwave trough is progged to follow early next
week. Most recent guidance has trended stronger and deeper with this
second shortwave. Given the variance of the guidance, predictability
is low, but current trends suggest some severe potential may
manifest across the southern Plains and/or Lower MS Valley next
week.
..Mosier.. 01/25/2022
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