Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 26, 2022
Updated: Wed Jan 26 09:41:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Jan 29, 2022 - Sun, Jan 30, 2022
D7
Tue, Feb 01, 2022 - Wed, Feb 02, 2022
D5
Sun, Jan 30, 2022 - Mon, Jan 31, 2022
D8
Wed, Feb 02, 2022 - Thu, Feb 03, 2022
D6
Mon, Jan 31, 2022 - Tue, Feb 01, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260939
SPC AC 260939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper pattern is anticipated throughout the extended
period. A strong shortwave trough is expected to mature into a
closed cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Coast on D4/Saturday
while another shortwave trough move eastward across southern CA into
the Southwest. Cyclone just off the Northeast coast is then expected
to continue northward into the Canadian Maritime Provinces on
D5/Sunday, while the western shortwave continues eastward into the
southern Plains. Moisture return ahead of this southern-stream
shortwave will begin to modify the cool and dry air mass that has
been in place throughout the weak, but most of the buoyancy will
remain confined to south TX on D5/Sunday.
Medium-range model guidance is in good agreement that the
southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward across TX
and Lower MS Valley on D6/Monday while losing amplitude. At the same
time, a strong shortwave trough will beginning deepening as it drops
southward from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. This
shortwave is then expected to continue southeastward, likely
reaching the southern Plains D8/Wednesday evening. Strong moisture
return will precede this shortwave, contributing to moist and
unstable air mass across central and east TX and the Lower MS
Valley. The combination of buoyancy and strong low to mid-level flow
suggests severe thunderstorms are possible. Predictability is
limited at this forecast range, with uncertainty too high to
introduce severe probabilities. However, if current trends continue,
severe probabilities will likely be needed in future outlooks.
..Mosier.. 01/26/2022
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