Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 1, 2022
Updated: Tue Feb 1 09:30:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Feb 04, 2022 - Sat, Feb 05, 2022
D7
Mon, Feb 07, 2022 - Tue, Feb 08, 2022
D5
Sat, Feb 05, 2022 - Sun, Feb 06, 2022
D8
Tue, Feb 08, 2022 - Wed, Feb 09, 2022
D6
Sun, Feb 06, 2022 - Mon, Feb 07, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 010928
SPC AC 010928
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CST Tue Feb 01 2022
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough will continue to pivot eastward across the Midwest
toward the lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians on Day 4/Friday.
The southern branch of the upper trough will become increasingly cut
off from the northern branch as a closed upper low develops over the
southern Rockies/western TX vicinity. Meanwhile, an strong cold
front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf of Mexico
will shift eastward, moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into
northern/central FL. Ahead of the front, southwesterly low level
flow will transport low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints northward
across much of the Southeast and the NC/SC Piedmont and coastal
vicinity. However, widespread cloud cover, ongoing precipitation and
poor midlevel lapse rates will limit destabilization. Furthermore,
veered low-level flow will result in poor convergence along the cold
front, while stronger forcing for ascent remain north of the
southeastern U.S. While isolated thunderstorms will be possible,
severe potential appears low at this time.
Beyond Day 4/Friday, a progressive upper pattern is forecast as a
series of mid/upper troughs migrate across the CONUS. Give the cold
frontal passage early in the period, and strong surface high
pressure across much of the country, dry and stable conditions will
prevail and severe thunderstorms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 02/01/2022
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