Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 3, 2022
Updated: Thu Feb 3 08:59:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Feb 06, 2022 - Mon, Feb 07, 2022
D7
Wed, Feb 09, 2022 - Thu, Feb 10, 2022
D5
Mon, Feb 07, 2022 - Tue, Feb 08, 2022
D8
Thu, Feb 10, 2022 - Fri, Feb 11, 2022
D6
Tue, Feb 08, 2022 - Wed, Feb 09, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030856
SPC AC 030856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CST Thu Feb 03 2022
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper-level pattern is expected during the Day 4-8
period as a series of troughs track across the CONUS east of the
Rockies. The surface pattern will be dominated mainly by high
pressure, with any stronger cyclogenesis being confined to the
northern Plains to Great Lakes vicinity. As a result, continental
trajectories and prior cold frontal intrusions well south into the
Gulf of Mexico will leave a dry and stable airmass in place. As a
result, thunderstorm potential will be low and severe convection is
not expected.
..Leitman.. 02/03/2022
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