Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 4, 2022
Updated: Fri Feb 4 08:24:02 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Feb 07, 2022 - Tue, Feb 08, 2022
D7
Thu, Feb 10, 2022 - Fri, Feb 11, 2022
D5
Tue, Feb 08, 2022 - Wed, Feb 09, 2022
D8
Fri, Feb 11, 2022 - Sat, Feb 12, 2022
D6
Wed, Feb 09, 2022 - Thu, Feb 10, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 040822
SPC AC 040822
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Fri Feb 04 2022
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
In the wake of a significant short wave trough progressing inland
across the British Columbia coast and Canadian Rockies by early
Monday, it appears that a blocking mid-level high will become more
prominent once again near or just west of the U.S. Pacific coast,
and remain so through much of next week. Downstream, large-scale
mean troughing likely will persist within one branch of mid-latitude
westerlies across much of the central through eastern U.S., with
troughing also probably lingering in a separate branch across the
northern Mexican Plateau into western Gulf Basin.
After initially retreating northward into parts of the Florida
Peninsula, it appears that the most prominent surface frontal zone
will shift south of southern Florida and the Keys early next week,
as one short wave embedded within this regime contributes to at
least modest cyclogenesis off the Atlantic coast. With relatively
cool and/or dry boundary-layer conditions likely to prevail across
much of the Gulf Basin, convective potential appears rather low
through the period.
..Kerr.. 02/04/2022
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