Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 5, 2022
Updated: Sat Feb 5 08:44:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Feb 08, 2022 - Wed, Feb 09, 2022
D7
Fri, Feb 11, 2022 - Sat, Feb 12, 2022
D5
Wed, Feb 09, 2022 - Thu, Feb 10, 2022
D8
Sat, Feb 12, 2022 - Sun, Feb 13, 2022
D6
Thu, Feb 10, 2022 - Fri, Feb 11, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050841
SPC AC 050841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CST Sat Feb 05 2022
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
It appears that a blocking mid-level high may remain prominent near
the U.S. Pacific coast through the middle to latter portion of the
coming work week, before perhaps becoming more suppressed late this
week into next weekend. Regardless, amplified mean troughing is
forecast to persist within the downstream mid-latitude westerlies,
east of the Great Plains into the western Atlantic, with the primary
surface frontal zone remaining over the open waters of the western
Atlantic into the Bahamas and Caribbean, in the wake of a cyclone
migrating across and north of the Canadian Maritimes early in the
period. Models indicate that weak mid-level troughing will also
linger within a separate branch, across the Mexican Plateau into the
western Gulf of Mexico, with relatively cool and stable
boundary-layer conditions being maintained across much of the Gulf
Basin.
..Kerr.. 02/05/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
