Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 6, 2022
Updated: Sun Feb 6 07:57:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Feb 09, 2022 - Thu, Feb 10, 2022
D7
Sat, Feb 12, 2022 - Sun, Feb 13, 2022
D5
Thu, Feb 10, 2022 - Fri, Feb 11, 2022
D8
Sun, Feb 13, 2022 - Mon, Feb 14, 2022
D6
Fri, Feb 11, 2022 - Sat, Feb 12, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060755
SPC AC 060755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Sun Feb 06 2022
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that blocking mid-level ridging will
remain prominent through this period, initially centered near the
northern U.S. Pacific coast during the middle to latter portions of
this week, before becoming suppressed and reforming a bit farther
offshore by late next weekend. Correspondingly, it appears that
mean large-scale troughing likely will persist downstream, both
within the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies across the eastern
U.S., as well as within a separate branch across the Mexican Plateau
through the Gulf of Mexico. Although there is increasing spread
concerning short wave developments within this regime toward the end
of the period, seasonably cool and dry conditions are forecast to
linger across much of the Gulf Basin. This is expected to
contribute to the maintenance of stable conditions across much of
the U.S., resulting in generally low convective potential.
..Kerr.. 02/06/2022
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