Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 7, 2022
Updated: Mon Feb 7 08:07:02 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Feb 10, 2022 - Fri, Feb 11, 2022
D7
Sun, Feb 13, 2022 - Mon, Feb 14, 2022
D5
Fri, Feb 11, 2022 - Sat, Feb 12, 2022
D8
Mon, Feb 14, 2022 - Tue, Feb 15, 2022
D6
Sat, Feb 12, 2022 - Sun, Feb 13, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070805
SPC AC 070805
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CST Mon Feb 07 2022
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate that an initially prominent
blocking high near the U.S. Pacific coast will become suppressed
late this week into next weekend, before reforming a bit farther
offshore by early next week. The possible evolution of the
downstream pattern is at least a bit more unclear, but guidance
continues to indicate that there may be considerable amplification
of mid-level short wave ridging to the north of the weakening high
(near the British Columbia coast), in advance of a significant short
wave trough approaching the Pacific coast. A corresponding
amplification of downstream troughing within the mid-latitude
westerlies seems probable across the central through eastern U.S. by
late next weekend, with the potential for this to be accompanied by
strong surface cyclogenesis along a lingering frontal zone offshore
of the Atlantic coast.
Given initial seasonably cool and dry conditions across much of the
Gulf Basin, which probably will be reinforced in the wake of another
frontal passage, it appears that any potential substantive
boundary-layer moisture return probably will be limited to parts of
southern Florida and the Keys, at most. Even if this occurs, there
remains only a relatively weak signal at this time, that this will
be accompanied by sufficient destabilization and forcing for ascent
to support an appreciable risk for severe thunderstorms, or
thunderstorms in general, next Saturday or Sunday.
..Kerr.. 02/07/2022
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